Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors
February 23, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of...Read More
Investment outlook Q&A
February 15, 2022
– inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to...Read More
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares
February 10, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Shares have had a good rebound but could still fall further in the short term as risks remain high around monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. However, a deep bear market is unlikely as US, global and Australian recessions are unlikely...Read More
The RBA ends bond buying
February 2, 2022
- but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for...Read More
Share market falls – seven things for investors to keep in mind
January 25, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its too early to say markets have bottomed. Key things for investors to...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates since the...Read More
2022 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
January 12, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2021 saw strong investment returns with low volatility. 2022 is likely to see more constrained returns with increased volatility. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; inflation; the US mid-term elections; China issues; Russian tensions with Ukraine and the west; & the Australian...Read More
Review of 2021, outlook for 2022
December 13, 2021
- recovery to continue as we hopefully learn to live with covid Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2021 was again dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, along with concern about higher inflation and monetary tightening but shares, unlisted assets and balanced growth super funds saw strong...Read More
- and falling prices in 2023 Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points After a 22% rise in Australian home prices this year, they are expected to slow to 5% growth in 2022 with prices likely to fall 5-10% in 2023. The main drivers behind the slowdown...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Likely key longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus pandemic are: bigger government; increased money supply and excess saving; increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; a faster embrace of technology; a greater focus on lifestyle; and a potential post-pandemic boom. The biggest...Read More