Oliver's Insights

MBA Financial StrategistsOliver's Insights

Oliver's Insights

Introduction It’s now two years since the RBA first started to raise interest rates resulting in the biggest tightening cycle since the late 1980s. Rates have gone much higher and stayed high for much longer than I thought would be the case as Australian households proved more resilient than expected thanks to a combination of...
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Another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia” Introduction The Budget is aimed at trying to lower inflation in the near term but supporting Government priorities including formally launching a “Future Made in Australia” (FMIA) over the medium term. In terms of the former, there...
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Introduction Coming out of the roughly 10% correction into October last year, share markets saw strong gains on hopes that lower inflation will allow central banks to cut interest rates and as global profits have remained strong. The going seems to have become tougher though with share markets falling in April amidst interest rate and...
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Introduction On a recent road trip, I was listening to a bunch of Taylor Swift and Andy Williams’ CDs and what struck me was how different the topics of the songs were. Andy’s covers were far more upbeat (with songs like ‘Happy Heart’ and ‘For All We Know’) whereas Taylor has lots of ‘somebody done...
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- shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here’s five reasons why the trend will likely remain up Introduction From their lows last October, it has been relatively smooth sailing for shares – with US shares up 28%, global shares up 25% & Australian shares up 17% to recent highs. But the last...
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Introduction It’s four years since the COVID lockdowns started. The pandemic ended when it morphed into the less deadly Omicron variant in late 2021, but just as a sound can reverberate around a room the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate in economies. Putting aside the long-term health impacts this note looks at 7...
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Introduction After another 80% or so plunge from its high in 2021 to its low in 2022, Bitcoin has rebounded again to a new record high. The next chart shows Bitcoin’s price relative to the $US since 2010, both on a regular scale and on a log scale to show perspective. From its 2022 low...
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Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a decade ago. The aim of investing “How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy...
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Introduction Share markets have pushed up to record highs this year, but can it continue? For some time now we have been monitoring seven key charts that are critical for the investment outlook. This note provides an update. Chart 1 – global business conditions PMIs A big driver of how shares perform this year will...
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Introduction Last year shares climbed a “wall of worry” as inflation fell leading to prospects for lower interest rates ahead. But can it continue? After participating in a webinar on the investment outlook this note takes a look at the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format. Are high interest rates working to...
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