MBA Financial StrategistsOliver's Insights

Oliver's Insights

This decade has now seen three global growth scares - around 2011-12, 2015-16 and now since last year. Each have been associated with softening business conditions indicators (or PMIs) as indicated in the next chart – see the circled areas. Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital And each have been associated with roughly 20% falls in share...
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While some have expressed surprise at the recent resilience in the value of the Australian dollar around the $US0.69-0.70 level despite weak Australian growth and Reserve Bank rate cuts, from a big picture sense it has already fallen a long way. It’s down 37% from a multi-decade high of $US1.10 in 2011 and it’s down...
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I have been working in and around investment markets for 35 years now. A lot has happened over that time. The 1987 crash, the recession Australia had to have, the Asian crisis, the tech boom/tech wreck, the mining boom, the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone crisis. Financial deregulation, financial reregulation. The end of the cold...
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After taking a back seat over the last six months as negotiations appeared to make progress the US/China trade war is back on with the President Trump – “tariff man” - ramping up tariffs on Chinese imports again and threatening more and China moving to retaliate. This note takes a simple Q & A approach...
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Since late last year share markets have rebounded with US shares up 25% to their recent high, global shares up 22% and Australian shares up 17% as last year’s worries about tightening monetary policy led by the Fed, global growth and trade wars have faded to varying degrees. Following such a strong rebound some have...
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Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates. But what’s driving low inflation? Is it really that bad? Why not just lower the inflation target? Will rate cuts help?And what does it mean for investors? Inflation surprises on the downside again Australian inflation as measured by the CPI...
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The Federal Election Some might be forgiven for thinking the wheels have fallen off Australian politics over the past decade with the same number of PM changes as Italy, a fractured Senate and “minority government” at times making sensible visionary long-term policy making hard. With the May 18 Federal Election offering a starker than normal...
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The 2019-20 Budget had three aims: to cement the Government’s fiscal credentials by delivering the long-awaited return to budget surplus; to provide fiscal stimulus to an ailing economy; and to help get the Government re-elected. It looks on track for the first thanks to a revenue windfall, this has provided room for fiscal stimulus and...
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The past week has seen a renewed intensification of concerns about global growth. Bond yields have plunged and associated growth worries have weighed on share markets. This note looks at the global growth outlook, why shares are vulnerable to a pullback and why it’s unlikely to be a resumption of last year’s downtrend. Background But...
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When I was in my early 20s I thought socialism might be the way to go. Two things happened. One I studied economics which led me to the conclusion that socialism/heavy state intervention doesn’t lead to the best outcome in terms of living standards for most. Second, I had the benefit of a trip to...
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