Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong. – 2025 is likely to see positive returns, but after the surprising calm of 2024,...Read More
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces constraints from: rising bond yields; not wanting a sharp fall in shares;...Read More
Key points – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. – His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets have moved to adjust – but it means higher...Read More
Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest constrained return potential, particularly from US shares but Australian, European and Chinese shares are a bit more attractive....Read More
Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of these mistakes is to have a long-term...Read More
Key points – A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy. – However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural problems facing China – around excess saving, demographics and growing state control. – The Australian economy is...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points – The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. – Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid intensification of...Read More
– but what about the Israel/Iran conflict & other risks? Key points Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran attacking Israel with more missiles is very concerning...Read More
Introduction After pushing to record highs, share markets had a sizeable correction into last week – with US and global shares down nearly 9% and Australian shares down nearly 6%. Such volatility is not unusual and is the price we pay for the higher longer term returns shares provide over defensive assets like cash and...Read More
Introduction “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.” – Ronald Reagan “We’re going to build factories again, put people to work making real products for American families, made with the hands of American workers. Together we will protect the wages of American workers…and...Read More