Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Compound interest is like magic – and it’s an investor’s best friend
November 10, 2021
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Compound interest is an investor’s best friend. The higher the return, the greater the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works. To make the most of it, ensure an adequate exposure to growth assets, contribute early...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is continuing with the RBA bringing forward its guidance regarding the first rate hike and the Fed set to commence tapering. We expect both to start raising rates later next year....Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. This will remove a key tailwind for investment returns over the decade ahead...Read More
The worry list for shares – how worrying are they?
October 13, 2021
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points It’s still too early to say that the pull back in share markets is over. Some of the worries around US fiscal policy and politics, China, global supply constraints and central banks likely have further to run and could see...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The key drivers of poor housing affordability and high household debt levels in Australia have been low rates and poor housing supply. Macro prudential controls to slow home lending now look imminent. But this is just a cyclical measure. More...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Share markets have hit the wobbles lately on the back of a long worry list ranging from growth concerns, central bank tapering, the US debt ceiling and fears of about China Evergrande’s problems. Shares may still have more downside as...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Since its February high of around $US0.80 the $A the $A has fallen on the back of global growth concerns, a slowdown in China and the Delta outbreak in Australia. However, there is good reason to expect the $A to...Read More
- but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Australian GDP growth slowed in the June quarter but to a stronger than expected +0.7%qoq. This avoids a technical recession, but the current quarter is likely to see a 4%...Read More
China’s growth slowdown and regulatory crackdown
August 25, 2021
- what does it mean for China’s growth outlook? Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points China is seeing a regulatory crackdown on tech companies, the property sector and inequality aimed at supporting its middle class. The shift to “bigger government” likely has further to run. Chinese...Read More
Six reasons why shares are at or near record levels
August 17, 2021
- but is it sustainable? Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Bonds and shares often diverge – we saw this a year ago with shares rallying but bond yields staying low. Shares have been boosted by strong earnings news, improved valuations, investor awareness of last years’...Read More