Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Investors could be forgiven for looking back on the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 with fond memories – because after the initial shock in February-March 2020 it was a period of strong returns and relative calm in investment markets. This...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel, Never ending or beginning, on an ever spinning wheel. As the images unwind, like the circles that you find, In the windmills of your mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJAVP7jP0bI Introduction Cycles are part...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction As widely expected, the RBA has increased the cash rate again by 0.5% taking it to 1.85%. This is more than double the 0.75% rate that applied before the pandemic started. The 175 basis points in rate hikes since April is...Read More
The good news in the plunge in markets
July 26, 2022
- higher medium term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The start of this year has been painful for investors with sharp losses in shares and bonds, dragging most superannuation funds into negative returns for the last financial year. And yet...Read More
Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, cool cars, etc. But economically it was a mess. Inflation surged and so did unemployment....Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs...Read More
...it’s not as bad as it looks, but it’s still an issue Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction If Australia has an Achilles’ heel it’s the high level of household debt that has accompanied surging home prices over the last 30 years. Of course, in the absence...Read More
The plunge in shares & flow on to super
June 20, 2022
– key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Usually share markets are relatively calm and so don’t generate a lot of attention. But periodically they tumble and generate headlines like “billions wiped off share market”...Read More
The RBA hikes rates again with more to go
June 8, 2022
– but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate again - by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to...Read More
– expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic. The main drivers behind the downturn are: poor affordability with prices up nearly 29% over 21 months; rising mortgage...Read More