Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
To modify Benjamin Franklin, it seems that in Australia nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and endless debate about property prices. Why is it so unaffordable? Are foreigners to blame? Is it a good investment? Is negative gearing the problem? Are property prices about to crash? Worries about a property crash...Read More
The Lucky Country holding up pretty well
March 2, 2016
Introduction The Australian economy performed better than expected in 2015. The mining boom ended around four years ago and yet the Australian economy has still not fallen into the recession that many feared, with non-mining activity helping the economy continue to grow. In fact at 3% GDP growth through 2015, Australian was a star performed...Read More
Global politics in the year of the monkey
February 25, 2016
The US election – populists versus the establishment First some facts. The election year, or Year 4 in the 4-year US presidential cycle, is normally an ok year for US shares. However, when it is in the eighth year of a presidency it has been poor with an average loss of -3.4% since 1927, albeit...Read More
There’s a bear in there – what drives mild versus deep bear markets
February 18, 2016
Introduction News that the Australian share market as measured by the ASX 200 index briefly slipped into bear market territory last week as defined by a 20% decline from the most recent high – which in this case was April last year – has generated much coverage and interest and understandable concern. This note takes...Read More
The malaise affecting equity markets and risk assets generally has shown no let up with Australian shares slipping into bear market territory yesterday (defined as a 20% or greater decline from the most recent high). In some ways it is reminiscent of 2008 with tightening credit markets, bank shares under pressure and worries central banks...Read More
The plunging oil price – why and what it means
January 28, 2016
Our view on the financial market turmoil has been covered in the last two Oliver’s Insights – except to add that central banks are now sounding more dovish. This started with the ECB which is now expected to ease at its March meeting and is also evident from the Fed which last night was less...Read More
2016 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
January 21, 2016
Introduction 2015 saw subdued returns for diversified investors as the global economy continued to grow and monetary conditions remained easy, but worries about deflation, plunging commodity prices, fears of an emerging market crisis led by China and uncertainty around the Fed’s first interest rate hike after seven years with near zero interest rates along with...Read More
Introduction 2016 has started much where 2015 left off with basically the same worries driving another bout of share market falls. Geopolitical concerns have played a role but the main issues are uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy, wariness about the Fed raising interest rates and the impact of a rising US dollar and falling Chinese...Read More
Introduction In the most anticipated and hotly debated interest rate decision ever the US Federal Reserve has opted to raise its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last seven years, to the range of 0.25-0.5%. Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital The move is hardly a surprise. The...Read More
Review of 2015, outlook for 2016 – more of the same
December 3, 2015
2015 – a constrained year for investors 2015 has seen another long worry list for investors. Some of these – such as terrorist attacks in Paris, the escalating war in Syria, refugee problems in Europe, Greece’s latest tantrum and tensions in the South China Sea – have not had a lasting impact on investment markets....Read More