Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
The US presidential election – Implications for investors
September 22, 2016
Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president makes the outcome of the 8 November US presidential election of greater significance than normal. Many would see Trump’s divisive and demeaning comments about certain groups of people, short fuse and erratic nature as rendering him as unqualified to be US president. This note looks at the...Read More
After a period of relative calm share markets have seen a return to volatility lately. This has gone hand in hand with a back-up in bond yields. This note looks at the main drivers and how long this period of weakness may last. Why the falls? The weakness in share markets reflects a range of...Read More
Megatrends impacting investment markets
July 28, 2016
Introduction Recent developments – including the rise of populism, developments in the South China Sea and around commodity prices along with relentless technological innovation – have relevance for longer term trends likely to affect investors. So this note updates our analysis on longer term themes that will likely impact investment markets over the medium term,...Read More
Introduction The past few weeks have been messy with Brexit, the Australian election, another terrorist attack in France and an attempted coup in Turkey. In fact, the last 12 months have been – starting with the latest Greek tantrum and China share market plunge a year ago. It’s almost as if someone has listened to...Read More
Australia’s messy 2016 election
July 6, 2016
Introduction This note takes a look at the implications of Australia’s Federal election. The Australian Federal election has delivered a messy result suggesting an even more difficult Senate for the Coalition if it is able to form government and the risk of return to minority government. The risk is that we will see a further slippage...Read More
Introduction In a shock for financial markets which had been increasingly confident that Britain would vote to Remain in the European Union, a victory for the Leave outcome by 52% to 48% triggered an abrupt bout of “risk off” in financial markets late last week. I suspect it was probably also a shock to many...Read More
Introduction What do the success of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in the US Presidential campaign, the close Brexit vote on Britain’s membership of the European Union and the Australian election have in common? They all signal some shift towards populism and support for more left wing policies in the electorate. If this trend flows...Read More
Brexit or Bremain – or does it really matter?
June 21, 2016
Introduction Y2K, Bird Flu, Peak Oil, Swine Flu, the end of the Mayan Calendar, Grexit, the fiscal cliff, US debt default, ghost cities, Ebola, Grexit again, imminent property crashes, etc…the world seems full of key events and phenomena upon which its whole existence – well at least the financial realm – supposedly hinges. Brexit seems...Read More
Introduction Recently I was asked where we are in the cycle of investor emotion between the extremes of “euphoria” and “depression”. This is a good question, as knowing where the investment crowd is at and being wary of it is essential to successful investing. The late 1980s Japanese bubble, the Asian miracle of the mid-1990s,...Read More
Introduction Since the global growth panic in January/February share markets and commodity prices have seen a decent rebound. and the stress in credit markets has receded. This has been helped by a combination of Fed assurances that it will not be reckless and ignore global risks in determining US interest rates, somewhat better economic data...Read More