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Oliver's Insights
MBA Financial Strategists•Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Key points – Helped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have rebounded to within 3-4% of their record highs. – The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is that the tariff mayhem could still flare up...Read More
Key points – The return of Labor with an increased majority basically means more of the same in terms of key economic policies. – The key challenges for the Government are to boost productivity and hence living standards, improve housing supply and affordability, get the budget under better control and strengthen the economy in the...Read More
Key points – Share markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies. – Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed will step in with lower interest rates. – For Australia it means softer...Read More
Key points – Many measures were pre-announced, but key new measures include tax cuts from 2026-27 & more cost of living support. – While the revenue windfall is expected to continue, it’s mostly being spent on new measures resulting a return to deficit of $27.6bn this financial year and $42.1bn next year. – The Budget...Read More
Key points – CoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%. – The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence. – Annual growth in rents slowed to 4.1%yoy, the slowest since 2021. Poor rental affordability...Read More
Key points – Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. – Even if Australian exports are not exempted from US tariffs the direct economic impact will be minor eg, steel...Read More
Key points – The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. – We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and shouldn’t stop the RBA easing in February if underlying...Read More
Key points – 2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility was low and balanced growth super funds returned around 11%. – 2025 is likely to see positive returns but after the strong gains of...Read More
Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong. – 2025 is likely to see positive returns, but after the surprising calm of 2024,...Read More
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces constraints from: rising bond yields; not wanting a sharp fall in shares;...Read More
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