Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80% (held back by relatively higher...Read More
Is Donald Trump’s honeymoon with investors over?
February 2, 2017
Since the US election last November US and global shares rallied around 8% and Australian shares rallied around 12% to their recent highs. Related to this the US dollar, bond yields and some commodity prices also pushed significantly higher. Optimism regarding Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies were not the only factor playing a role in this...Read More
2017 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
January 25, 2017
Despite a terrible start to the year and a few political surprises along the way, 2016 saw good returns for diversified investors who held their nerve. Balanced super funds had returns around 7.5%, which is pretty good given inflation was just 1.5%. 2017 is commencing with less fear than seen a year ago but there...Read More
2016 – a messy but okay year US share market analyst Joe Granville once observed that “if it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong”. 2016 was perhaps remarkable for the things that many thought were obvious at the start of the year but did not happen: the global economy did not see plunging growth and deflation; the...Read More
Introduction After the recent experience with the Brexit vote in the UK and election of Donald Trump as President of the US which are indicative of a nationalist backlash against the pro-globalisation establishment, there is a fear that Europe will go the same way with nationalist forces in Italy, Austria, France, Germany, etc, triggering a...Read More
In the upside-down world logic that applies to much of investing, there are a bunch of mistakes investors often make which makes it harder for them to reach their financial goals. This note looks at the nine most common mistakes investors make. Mistake #1 Crowd support indicates safety “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow...Read More
The end of the super cycle bull market in bonds?
November 16, 2016
From record lows just after the Brexit vote – government bond yields have spiked higher. Ten year bond yields have risen from 1.36% in the US to 2.2%, from -0.19% in Germany to 0.31% and from 1.81% in Australia to 2.64% in four months. This in turn has led to sharp falls in high yield...Read More
After a seemingly long and difficult campaign Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States with the Republican Party retaining control of the House, and the Senate, in Congress. Just as we saw with the Brexit vote, the combination of rising inequality, stagnant middle incomes and the disenchantment of white non-college educated males...Read More
Perhaps the best that can be said of the US election is that it will soon be over. While polls had been moving in favour of a Clinton victory, the FBI’s announcement that it is examining new emails in relation to her use of a private email server while Secretary of State has taken it...Read More
We are going through one of those periods where it seems there is a long list of things for investors to worry about: the US election; the Fed; ever present fears about a break of the Eurozone; and China. To be sure these risks are real and in our view some combination of them could...Read More