Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Bubbles, busts, investor psychology…and bitcoin
November 22, 2017
Introduction The surge in bitcoin has attracted much interest. Over the last five years, it has soared from $US12 to over $US8000; this year it’s up 760%. Its enthusiasts see it as the currency of the future and increasingly as a way to instant riches with rapid price gains only reinforcing this view. An alternative...Read More
The medium term investment return remains constrained
November 9, 2017
The last five years have seen strong returns for diversified investors thanks to double digit gains in shares (after a rebound from a mini bear market around the Eurozone crisis) and solid returns from unlisted commercial property and infrastructure. For example, balanced superannuation funds saw median returns of 9.3% per annum over the five years...Read More
Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)
October 25, 2017
The low interest rates of recent times along with periodic turmoil in investment markets has provided us with a reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides. It’s particularly important for those relying on investment income to fund their living expenses. As with all investment topics, investing for income...Read More
This month of October often creates apprehension amongst investors given its historic track record with the 1929 and 1987 share market crashes. And it was in October 2007 that US shares peaked ahead of 50% plus falls (in most share markets) through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). From the post-GFC share market lows in March...Read More
A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it. Recent signs of price falls...Read More
The US Federal Reserve starts quantitative tightening
September 25, 2017
The US Federal Reserve provided few surprises following its September meeting. While it left interest rates on hold, it confirmed that it will begin what it calls “balance sheet normalisation” next month and continued to signal its expectation that it will raise interest rates again in December and in the years ahead. While projected interest...Read More
For some time now, the investment world has been characterised by a search for decent yield paying investments. This “search for yield” actually started last decade but was interrupted by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone debt crisis before resuming again in earnest. When investment assets are in strong demand from investors, their...Read More
Another five great charts on investing
September 12, 2017
New ways to access various investments, tax changes and new regulations, all with social media adding to the noise. But it’s really quite simple and this can be demonstrated in charts. This note continues our series that began with “Five great charts on investing”, which can be found here and looks at another five great charts –...Read More
Growth bounces back (again) After another (weather related) soft patch in the March quarter, Australian economic growth bounced back in the June quarter with quarterly growth of 0.8%, up from 0.3%. However, annual growth is still subdued at 1.8% year on year, which is well below potential of around 2.75%. In the quarter, growth was...Read More
Introduction It seems momentous things happen in years ending in seven. Well, at least in the last 50 years starting with the “summer of love” in 1967 and the introduction of the Chevrolet Camaro. But after that, it was downhill with Elvis leaving the building in 1977, the 1987 share market crash, the Asian crisis...Read More