MBA Financial StrategistsOliver's Insights

Oliver's Insights

Our view on the financial market turmoil has been covered in the last two Oliver’s Insights – except to add that central banks are now sounding more dovish. This started with the ECB which is now expected to ease at its March meeting and is also evident from the Fed which last night was less...
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Introduction 2015 saw subdued returns for diversified investors as the global economy continued to grow and monetary conditions remained easy, but worries about deflation, plunging commodity prices, fears of an emerging market crisis led by China and uncertainty around the Fed’s first interest rate hike after seven years with near zero interest rates along with...
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Introduction 2016 has started much where 2015 left off with basically the same worries driving another bout of share market falls. Geopolitical concerns have played a role but the main issues are uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy, wariness about the Fed raising interest rates and the impact of a rising US dollar and falling Chinese...
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Introduction In the most anticipated and hotly debated interest rate decision ever the US Federal Reserve has opted to raise its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last seven years, to the range of 0.25-0.5%. Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital The move is hardly a surprise. The...
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2015 – a constrained year for investors 2015 has seen another long worry list for investors. Some of these – such as terrorist attacks in Paris, the escalating war in Syria, refugee problems in Europe, Greece’s latest tantrum and tensions in the South China Sea – have not had a lasting impact on investment markets....
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Introduction For much of this year the big debate (or obsession) for investors has been about when the Fed would start to raise interest rates after nearly seven years of being near zero. After delays in June and September attention is now focussed on the December 15-16 Fed meeting following the Fed’s indication at its...
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Introduction A decade or so ago a large Australian fund manager ran a campaign urging Australians’ to pay more attention to their superannuation (pension) savings. This initially struck me as good advice – after the family home for most of us it will end up being our biggest pot of savings so it makes sense...
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Since the end of the GFC in 2009, returns from unlisted commercial property have been strong and steady at around 9.5-10% pa. This initially reflected a recovery from the GFC related slump but more significantly a desire for decent income bearing investments from investors that has pushed down investment yields. Falling yields has been a...
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A defining feature of the economic cycle we are now going through is the constrained and fragile nature of economic growth globally. After an initial bounce post the GFC to 5.4% in 2010, global economic growth has consistently disappointed. This can be seen in the progression of the IMF’s economic growth forecasts for each year...
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A pick-up in the housing sector was a necessary part of the adjustment in the Australian economy following the end of the mining boom. The RBA started cutting interest rates in 2011, home buyers returned, home prices rose and this has all encouraged a dwelling construction boom that has helped offset the mining investment slump....
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